12 Deep Space Warfare and Space Dominance [Nichols]
PURVIEW
As of this writing (February 14, 2023), multiple intelligence balloons or UFOs from unknown sources have traversed the United States and penetrated the Air Defense Systems (ADS). It took more than a week for POTUS to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon. (Gustaf Kilander, 2023)[1] The DoD reported that its first shot was missed by a defensive F-16 at a UFO over Lake Huron. [2] Chinese surveillance balloons have been detected over the Middle East according to USAF LTG Alexus Grynkewich. (Paul Best, 2023)
Since 2018, KSU Wildcat author teams have explored the Risks, Vulnerabilities, Impact, and Countermeasures for US ADS, specifically for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). (Nichols & al, Space Systems: Emerging Technologies and Operations, 2022), (Nichols & Sincavage, 2022), (Nichols & al., Unmanned Vehicle Systems and Operations on Air, Sea, and Land, 2020), (Nichols R. K., 2020), (Nichols R. K., 2020), (Nichols R. K.-P., 2019)
Their conclusions and ISSUES identified were:
THREAT: The RISK of success of terrorist attacks on Air Defense Systems (ADS) via UASs / SUAS is higher and improving with commercial capabilities and accessibility. (Nichols R. K., 2020)
HOW: Advanced small drones capable of carrying sophisticated imaging equipment, significant and deadly (WMDD) payloads are readily available to the civilian market. (Nichols & Sincavage, 2022)
WHO? A range of nation-state, terrorist, insurgent, criminal, corporate, and activist threat groups have demonstrated the ability to use civilian drones and gather intelligence.
ISSUES – ADS optimized for missiles and AC at high altitudes & speeds.
- Data fusion works better with larger targets.
- Reactive for longer ranges.
- Close reactive requirements sub-optimal.
ADS Vulnerabilities to sUAS
- SUAS launched into action close to target(s) – ~ 1 mile. Small Radar signature.
- Reactive dictates quick response near target. Slow flight. LOW flying avoiding Radar identification.
- Electric motors are both quiet and limited thermal signatures.
- Make difficult detection in noise. The urban sphere presents additional problems & potential collateral damage. (Nichols R. K., DRONE WARS THREATS, VULNERABILITIES AND HOSTILE USE of UAS, 2017)
Keeping in mind the apparent deficiencies in the DoD, USAF, and POTUS responses to simple balloon incursions into our earthly ADS, we now take the fascinating mental jump to Deep Space and potential battles far beyond the constraints of Earth. What might the logistics and forces require to fight in deep space? (What is Deep Space, 2023) Can we imagine a weaponized space domain where military vessels and robotic machines fight force-on-force battles thousands of miles above the surface of the Earth?
Rather than the Sci-Fi notions of “Alien versus Human” in such movies as Aliens, Mars Attack, District 9, Independence Day, Avatar, Star Wars, and Battlestar Galactica, in reality, space warfare is already upon us. It is restricted to orbital activities near and around Earth. It is not beyond imagination that humans will make First Contact with another sentient life capable of competing with us on an interplanetary scale.[3] This does not consider that our first battles in space will be with ourselves (other humans). Commercial firms like Space X, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin are making huge progress in space tourism.
It is reasonable to assert that state-on-state conflict will be humans’ first open space warfare experience. (Wright, 2020)[4]
Ye author’s sense is that space warfare will look more like and require staged training of forces similar to Enders Game. What that movie should have addressed (and we will ) is the logistics problem.
OBJECTIVES
This is an introductory chapter to a fascinating science – the conquest of deep space. It encompasses so many disciplines: materials, logistics, military science, weapons, tactics, operations, HAZMAT, navigation, safety, security, survival, forces and gravity, hostile environment, politics, First Contact and so many additional topics. The objective is to give the student a small flavor of some of the key concerns to building a naval–structured space force that might be able to colonize territory in deep space. This would not be a civilian operation but likely a military one guided by strategic, survival, and political goals.
Open sources focus on astrophysics, new discoveries, and public information about US Space Force Command technologies/budget/organization. Both approaches focused on some of the harsh realities of traveling into deep space and then launching operations to take territory. Two resources did provide enough strategy and thought to yield challenges to our readers, and we lean heavily on their experiences. (Wright, 2020) (Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019) Treat this chapter as a match to light further dreaming and thinking. Make yourself an Admiral and think how you would prepare your fleet to sail millions of miles into space to set up a forward base for future military endeavors. Along the way, you might come into contact with a non-human sentient species that has similar ideas to Earth as its base. Is it a game of GO or Chess you are about to play?
INTERSTELLAR BASICS
In 1961, Frank Drake created a theoretical equation to determine the number of civilizations in the Milky Way capable of emitting detectable EM emissions. The equation was rife with assumptions that drastically affected the calculations. Drake’s conjecture was about 340 spacefaring civilizations that could sustain life and be detectable by Earth technology. (Drake, 2023)
Conflict has existed since the first day that man evolved on Earth. I can picture Adam and Eve having a heated discussion about dinner. I don’t know how it was settled. Conflict occurs because political units use power to ensure their survival and this use of power affects different political units unevenly. Military force is a key instrument of national power to ensure behavior and the right to survival. Unfortunately, humanity has always reserved the right to use violence and coercion. In nice terms, this is called international relations as using force to obtain political objectives.
Outer Space Treaty, formally the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, is a multilateral treaty that forms the basis of international space law. Negotiated and drafted under the auspices of the United Nations, it was opened for signature in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union on January 27, 1967, entering into force on October 10, 1967. As of February 2022, 112 countries are parties to the treaty—including all major spacefaring nations—and another 23 are signatories. (Wiki, 2023) Unfortunately, only political power can enforce or reject a claim; only conflict can ensure the final decision. Distances between stellar objects and logistical difficulties in supplying space forces mean a preponderance of military power in one area or near a particular supply object force the de facto arbiter of that object’s security and access. (Wright, 2020)
ANARCHICAL ENVIRONMENT
Space comprises extreme distances between unfamiliar stellar bodies, which are or can be assumed hostile to human life. [5] Any territorial claims will be backed by political negotiations that hold interest in them and are prepared to maintain, supply, and protect their claims. In maritime Earth situations, it is incumbent on vessels to answer and assist in rescue operations for a vessel in distress. The law of salvage is a principle of maritime law whereby any person who helps recover another person’s ship or cargo in peril at sea is entitled to a reward commensurate with the value of the property saved. (Wright, 2020)
Maritime law is inherently international, and although salvage laws vary from country to country, generally, there are established conditions to be met to allow a salvage claim. The vessel must be in peril, either immediate or forthcoming; the salvage vessel must act voluntarily and under no pre-existing contract; and the salvage vessel must be successful in their efforts, though payment for partial success may be granted if the environment is protected. (Wiki, 2023) Because space is a self-help system, claimant states cannot rely on other political units to safeguard their claims. (Wright, 2020)
Space is a unique environment. Territorial claims share three characteristics: Technological sophistication, complications, and vulnerability. The deep space environment is hostile, unbelievably hostile to habitation and creating a permanent base or settlement. The logistics of supply are a nightmare in a horror show. The equipment in a simple research lab would require sophistication and stand-alone computing capabilities of 5-G networks available on Earth. Supply vessels would need to be escorted by military vessels. Communications would need to be the best that Earth engineers could offer. If a supply vessel arrived late – what would be the consequences to the lab? Everything must be designed for duplication, accuracy, uniqueness, security, survivability, replacement, longevity, and balance. It requires technical sophistication.
Space territorial claims would be complicated. They would be in 4-dimensions (three physical and time). Stellar phenomena are in motion according to their body and gravity’s influence. Think miles cubed rather than square miles like Earth’s territorial claims. Reference points protected air space, and boundaries could be at the heart of every disagreement.
Claims in space are, by nature, vulnerable. Space and maritime domains share the problem of pinpoint location. The extreme distances between claims and the slow speeds of space-going vessels mean the territorial claim will be unprotected for long periods. (Wright, 2020)
SPACE DISTANCE
Space is so big and vast that it defies our best measurement capabilities. Basic dimensions are measured as distances between stars and by listing the quantity ( or estimate of) the number of stars themselves. Let’s expand on a maritime example of MOB [6] or deserter from a ship at sea. Both swimmers in the water spot what they think is land, perhaps 1-2 nm from their location. They make this calculation with their head above water and in the sea where they are in motion with current and waves. They start swimming. The actual land mass might be as far as 5 nm. Estimates in water are usually 200% or more under stress conditions. [7]An average swimmer in 70oF water temperature, average wave conditions, and no sharks is 32.24 minutes across all ages and genders. (Anonymous, 1 Mile Swim Times: Swimming Standards By Age and Ability, 2023) Assuming our MOB or deserter is off by 3 nm, his total time would be 161 min for the 5 nm if not exhausted. Let’s change the water temperature to 40oF. See Figure 12-1 Life Expectancy Following Cold Water Immersion. Our MOB / Deserter has about 1 hour to have a 50% chance to live. Above 90 minutes, his life expectancy is zero. Even with an exposure suit, [8]Our MOB/Deserter would be in great danger as the nm increases. See Figure 12- 2 Life Expectancy Following Cold-Water Immersion (Exposure Suit). Errors in maritime situations are quite dependent on distance and environment and can quickly become life-threatening.
Now we put our play in space where the baseline temperature of outer space is based on the radiation of the Big Bang at -455 oF. (Wiki, 2023) Why is deep space this cold? The distance between gas and dust particles grows, limiting their ability to transfer heat. Leaving a space vessel for any reason is fatal – immediately. Protective gear has its limitations, as well as the ability to carry oxygen. BTW, A body will decompose in space. Although there are no insects, fungi, or external organisms to break down the body, we still carry plenty of bacteria with us. Left unchecked, they would rapidly multiply and cause the putrefaction of a corpse on board the shuttle, ISS, or vessel. (Anonymous, Would a Corpse decay in space?, 2023)
Figure 12-1 Life Expectancy Following Cold Water Immersion
Source: Reprinted from Figure 13-2 courtesy of (USAF, 2003)
Figure 12-2 Life Expectancy Following Cold-Water Immersion (Exposure Suit)
Source: Reprinted from Figure 13-3 courtesy of (USAF, 2003)
Distances associated with space flight are brain-busters. Traveling at light speed (which is not possible yet) would take four years to reach our closest neighboring star, Alpha Centauri. Safely equipping a fleet-sized for deep space travel would be critical to any force hoping to traverse the galaxy. Planners must provide additional supplies, replacement parts, a machine shop, excess fuel, excess weapons, hazard protections, machinery duplication, backup communication, and navigation equipment. Multiple navigational hubs and protected lanes of travel would be required. (Wright, 2020)
DARK ENERGY AND DARK MATTER
There is so much mystery in the universe. Two components of the universe that have been studied but we really need to comprehend are dark energy and dark matter. Before contemplating sending a space force to engage with a combatant competitor, we must know more about these. Dark Energy (DE) appears to be accelerating the universe’s expansion with time. Discovered in the 1990s from observations of distant supernovas, this expansion observation contradicted the prevailing theory of cosmos decelerating. (Saikia, 2023) See Figure 12-3.
Figure 12-3 Hypernova
Source: (Saikia, 2023)
The explanation is that DE forces space to expand and gross less dense, thereby driving galaxies and other structures apart. From a space force POV, [9]waypoints and navigation sets are not constant.
Dark Matter (DM) does not interact with light or conventional matter. It was initially deduced from its gravitational effects on visible matter, such as the spinning and grouping of galaxies. DM is believed to constitute approximately 85% of the universe’s matter, although scientists have yet to discover it directly. DM is the network glue for revealing enormous clusters and filaments of galaxies. This has been confirmed with modern telescopes and gravitational wave detectors. (Saikia, 2023) The relationship between DM and DE is being explored by NASA to identify the evolution of DE over time and space and how DM interacts with regular matter and other kinds of energy. See Figure 12-2 NASA Rendition of DE interactions with other energy forms.
FIGURE 12-4 A simulated drawing of a large black hole emitting high-energy atomic jets. Elements of this image furnished by NASA.jpg
Sources: NASA, (Saikia, 2023)
NAVAL MODEL
(Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019) presents a military lexicon of tactics, strategies, and objectives to be considered in near space (to GEO altitudes) against terrestrial competitors. DM and DE are less important in the direct altitudes over Earth’s surface. However, our concern is with Deep space. (Wright, 2020) considers the environment and technologies available for an interstellar space force. DM and DE come into play big-time.
Forces serving in space would be comprised of forces structured similarly to our navies on Earth. [10] The nature of space travel means long, isolated, and unforgiving movement over vast distances. This is akin to ocean-going terrestrial navies. The cold and lifeless environment outside is to space vessels as the ocean is to submarines. (Wright, 2020) Space is a three-dimensional environment, and the occupant of any space vessel is at the mercy of zero gravity.
Vessels must be large enough to contain supplies, personnel, and equipment needed for spaceborne missions. Ships must carry spare and standby equipment to make repairs underway; space will swallow the unprepared or undersupplied. Terrestrial, naval ships do this regularly. Classic naval discipline will be required to protect provisions and personnel over long voyage times. Establish rank, traditions, and command mesh well with spaceborne forces.
SPACE RPO
Dr. Paul Szymanski is an SME on Space Rendezvous and Proximity Operations (RPO) and Contingency Planning. He teaches Satellite Warfare classes and is a US Space Forces consultant. [11] His writings are prolific, and three of his more interesting ones are “How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War” (Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019) “Space Operational Art and Design (SOAD),” (Szymanski, Space Operational Art, and Design (SOAD), 2020) and “Space Warfare Analysis Tools (SWAT) – Summary.” (Szymanski, Space Warfare Analysis Tools (SWAT) Summary, 2020) [12]
ALL OR NOTHING
Major Wright and Dr. Szymanski agree that Deep Space Warfare would be “All or Nothing.” They also believe that the model of Naval maritime engagements has analogs to space warfare. Naval and airborne battles will tend to be All or Nothing. They will win and live or lose and die. (Wright, 2020) Why? Operating in an extremely hostile environment means that the slightest mechanical or life support problem would lead to losing the entire vessel to the vacuum of space. Technological advantages like terrestrial naval combat tend to be decisive and tower over obsolete naval technology. Naval forces that press their weight upon the opposition will produce cascading destruction exponentially on the weaker force. Rescue and personnel recovery is unlikely in space because both the hostile environment and the battle are still active. The longer a battle rages in space, the more the losing side loses. (Wright, 2020)
SUPPLYING SPACE FORCES – A LOGISTICS NIGHTMARE
Dr. Szymanski presents a detailed discussion of space warfare implications for the Principals of War with a comparison of terrestrial and space considerations for each of the nine principles in Table 12-1. Principles of Space War. Dr. Szymanski’s vision of space warfare is confined to the upper regions of satellites and space stations where their electronic signals or weapons reach down to or up from Earth. The potential combatants are political and known. Major Wright’s vision encompasses deep space where First Contact is possible, distances are great, and the environment so hostile that rescue is unlikely. Combatants may be human or not. Combat is All or Nothing, and protecting territorial claims are in play. Those claims might be as big as another planet or mining section on a planet /star/asteroid or extended waypoint where supplies and personnel are prepositioned.
TABLE 12-1 Principles of Space War[13]
| 1 | Objective |
| 2 | Offensive |
| 3 | Mass |
| 4 | Economy of Force |
| 5 | Maneuver |
| 6 | Unity of Command |
| 7 | Security |
| 8 | Surprise |
| 9 | Simplicity |
Source: (Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019)
We have two space war visionaries presenting their views of the implications of the Principles of Space War ( Table 12-1). Their purview is different in terms of distance and logistics from the Earth. Dr. Szymanski considers the questions raised if space war is limited to the edge of satellites and space stations. Major Wright is concerned with deep space and dominance over humans and First Contact sentient or non-sentient beings. We can integrate/differentiate their KEY positions based on Table 12-1. See Table 12-2 for the author’s synchronization of ideas based on two primary references and KSU’s Wildcat research. (Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019) (Wright, 2020) (Nichols & al, Space Systems: Emerging Technologies and Operations, 2022) (Nichols, et al., 2023) Remember many questions can be raised about each of the implications of formal Principles of Space War. Questions give rise to more questions and debates. Our effort here is to find the nub of both visions. The doctrinal quotes have several sources. (Tzu, 2006) (USA, 2020) (Clausewitz, 2003) (Wright, 2020)
Table 12-2 Comparison and Interpretation of Space Warfare Visions grounded in Principles of Space War
| Principle of Space War
(Szymanski) |
Terrestrial (Szymanski)
|
Space (Szymanski) from Earth to ISS[14]
|
Deep Space (Wright)[15] |
| Objective | “Direct every military operation toward a clearly defined, decisive, and attainable objective with measurable effects.” | To take out one or more satellites supported by satellites and ground stations. What level of information denial can be achieved? | In deep space (DS), objectives must be crystal clear. DS’s harsh environment immediately pits any military operation, of any size, against the clock. DS warfare is, first and foremost, to achieve a political objective. Are the forces available enough to achieve the “end result” |
| Offensive | “Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative.” | Is there a political will to start a space war? Are US Forces setting the space battle’s time, place, and terms? | When in battle in DS, it is ALL or NOTHING. They win and live or lose and die. Newer technology tends to be decisive against older technology or weapons. A Naval space force tends to press its weight until the weaker force begins to cascade exponentially. |
| Mass | “Mass the effects of overwhelming combat power at a decisive place and time.” | Are there sufficient weapons to achieve continuous or sustained space control? How will the weapons cache be supplied? Can the weapons be synchronized for simultaneous and coordinated attacks? | DS resembles a maritime environment. Once sunk on Earth, a naval ship has a chance of rescuing some of its complement. In DS rescue is unlikely, and the entire complement is lost. |
| Economy of Force | “Employ all combat power available in the most effective way possible; allocate minimum essential combat power to secondary efforts.” | Are all space control efforts and weapon systems integrated into one deployment/ employment plan? Are they purposefully in delay, limited, or deception operations that focus the enemy’s attention away from the main space attack at all times of the conflict? | Taking on a planet or even a small star is measured in miles cubed, not square miles like on Earth. Allocation of forces where the space flight distances are mind-numbing presents far greater problems than minimizing forces. Further, a consideration of the makeup of those forces (Hybrid / robotic) is a force multiplier. |
| Maneuver | “Place the enemy in a position of disadvantage through the flexible application of combat power.” | Are there critical orbits/time, phasing/launch, corridors /communications paths worldwide contributing to the battlefield that needs space superiority consideration? | The same principles hold, BUT Spaceborne forces may find themselves blasting each other without mercy like in a previous era of capital ships. Conceivably an entire fleet could be lost in a single engagement. Forces may engage less often because of Risk factors. |
| Unity of Command | “for every objective, seek a unity of command and unity of effort.” | Is there adequate space/info war delineation of a chain of command and decision responsibility? Are target lists traceable back to objectives? | DS is an Anarchical Environment. Territorial claims will require technological innovation/ sophistication; they will be complicated and vulnerable. |
| Security | “Never permit the enemy to acquire unexpected advantage.” | Have OPSEC concerns been met? Have choke points, centers of gravity (TT&C), [16]Have logistics and command structures been identified and protected? | Security has two distinct features in DS. OPSEC, COMSEC, and facilities security will be paramount. However, security is also a political consideration, especially when dealing with other non-Earth sentient beings. |
| Surprise | “Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared.”[17] | The timing and tempo of space weapons use can be a surprise even if their existence is known. Threats of weapon use, even if the weapon doesn’t exist, can effectively surprise. | Taking a planet is no mean feat. Surprise is difficult to achieve with long-range Intel, MASINT, and EW. A planetary assault would require 4 stages: Blockade; Siege; BW & CW deployment; orbital insertion, and space drop of sufficient troops – perhaps as many as five million. Surprise is not an option. |
| Simplicity | “Prepare clear, uncomplicated plans and concise orders to ensure thorough understanding.” | How complex are space weapons and their deployment? | Planetary invasion is a logisticians’ nightmare. What number of troops is necessary to beat a planet into submission? Planning for a several million-mile supply line is a horror. How about life support on the planet for sustaining forces? How about weapons, spare parts, medical supplies, casualties, hybrid components, and withdrawal if necessary. The headaches keep coming. |
Sources: (Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019) (Wright, 2020) (Nichols & al, Space Systems: Emerging Technologies and Operations, 2022) (Nichols, et al., 2023) See Endnotes 12 & 13 regarding distances firewalling these visions.
FIRST CONTACT
The scale of the universe and our slow technological reach for the stars suggests an extraterrestrial (ET) sentient competitor “out there.” It is only a question of when we make First Contact (FC). What would FC look like? How would FC behave – especially if FC is more advanced than us? Little green men? Bugs? EM impulses? Carbon-based? More than 1000 scientific movies have produced all kinds of ETs / FC. We, as a population and especially movie-making bodies of Japan, Russia, and Hollywood – come to mind – always assume that FC is bad or wants to use us for food or steal Earth’s resources.
Shifting into the FC playground of deep space, it is reasonable to think of potential military confrontations and countermeasures from a military strategy perspective. FC scenarios carry with them unpredictability and danger. Is our first assumption to murder the FC ( because we expect them to do the same to us)? There is no riskier adventure for either party than to reveal its presence, nature, or interests of one civilization to the other. The very presence of an alien intelligence can have serious ramifications on the progress and character of a civilization. The Orville, Season 2, Episode 5, “All the World is a Birthday Cake,” has the crew meet a humanoid race on Regor 2 in the Gamma Velorum system. Regorians’ FC with the Planetary Union abruptly ends when two Union officers are arrested because they are Gilia’s ( wrong birthday). Regor 2 is governed by a race that has taken astrology to the extreme. In that same cool series, Commander Kelly is seen as a Goddess of Healing in Season 1, Episode 12, “Mad Idolatry,” because she revealed her presence in a technologically infantile and multi-dimensional civilization. Her status throughout later generations caused acts in her name that were hardly defined as healing. (Wiki, 2023)
FC considerations generate questions such as what intelligence is known about the target species? What are the interests of both parties? Why is FC being initiated? How will it be accomplished (safely)? Who goes first? Is communication possible? What will be the long-term influence on both species? And on and on. Nothing will be understandable for both species on FC.
However, War is universal. The only consideration in conflict with another species is scale. We will naturally distrust any non-human civilization. If FC is planned, one side will sortie with force greater than the counterpart to ensure survival and to intimidate a potential rival from future aggression. Sortieing without a preponderance of force would be foolhardy and even risk our civilization’s survival. Diplomacy and niceness can come second. Unplanned FC is totally unpredictable. Both civilizations will find any military battle or accidental damage or loss of life difficult to ignore, especially when diplomacy comes into play. (Wright, 2020)
LOGISTICS – SUPPLYING SPACE FORCES
The greatest challenge to any spaceborne force is its maintenance and resupply in DS. Foraging will not be an option. Historically, fielded armies needed to carry things that could not be obtained locally: ammunition, artillery, cooking gear, camp tools, sleeping bags, water, etc. This is not possible in DS. Depending on mission and scale, any space force might be larger than anything humanity has previously needed. Care and feeding of human assault troops, officers, crew, spare parts, and specialized troops to care for the automated forces over vast distances and cruise times border on the unimaginable.
The numbers and types of supplies involved with an armed force of any size go far beyond ammunition (amount, types, crews) and food. Everything an individual soldier might need during the day, including clothing, personal care, camping tools, to body bags, must be planned in detail. Beyond substance, fuel is a major supply issue, as well as oxygen, spare parts, and replacements.
SPACE FORCES OPTIONS
Table 12-3 shows the abbreviated pros and cons of three options for manning a space armada. Further explanation may be found in (Wright, 2020)
TABLE 12-3 Abbreviated Pros And Cons Of Three Different Options For Manning A Space Armada
| FORCE | PROS | CONS |
| Terrestrial – human officers & crew, traditional supply function | Familiarity,
Maximum operational flexibility, Maximized Morale, Limited investment, Maximizes ingenuity and adds to survivability, Rapidly adjustable in size, Experienced forces act as success multipliers |
Catastrophe is extremely costly,
Inefficient compared to automated forces, Frequent resupply, and transfers limit a force’s range, Limited by human capacity, rest, boredom, Likely unsuitable for conscription. |
| HYBRID – Robots, Cyborgs, Exoskeletons, Nanobots, & Humans | Less personnel is required for a full crew complement,
Less support is needed than completely human crews, Provides a secondary catastrophic point of failure, Very advanced AI could aid mission completion and combat performance |
Eliminates the human element,
Malfunctions require more expertise to repair, Malfunctions carry an increased risk of mission-ending failure, Onboard priorities could force crew members to sacrifice themselves for the good of automation. |
| TOTALLY AUTOMATED – No humans | Completely removes the need for life support and organic supply,
Vessels can theoretically operate with minimal rest or refit, Preparation time is limited only by the speed of the industry, Machine-only forces cost considerably less than manned ones, if truly unmanned, Can traverse dangerous areas that manned spacecraft cannot, Advances in AI could mean automated space forces capable of learning from their mistakes and experiences, No human life was lost in a disaster, Reliable onboard systems decrease the chances of failure.
|
The human element is completely removed,
Entirely automated forces are at the mercy of the weakest component reliability, Repair and refit will be difficult to diagnose and respond to, Totally automated forces are completely reliant on command-and-control signals from a distance – a critical vulnerability, Incapable of diplomatic discourse if encountering another sentient species, Complete conquest of a territory unlikely due to local control, Most contingencies must be considered beforehand for programming purposes – another critical vulnerability. |
Source: (Wright, 2020)
When you think about the logistics problem, there is no guarantee that the chosen battlefield will possess the minimum requirements to support human life. Any assault force assembled must bring everything needed to support life, including housing. The force must create an environment suitable to human life and breathing conditions. Even if the planet is life-capable and supports respiratory organisms, it cannot ab initio be assumed to be compatible with our oxygen-nitrogen atmosphere. So, life support and breathing apparatus will be required. Filtering systems would need to be supplied for every space soldier. Filtering out what? A foreign atmosphere might contain unknown bacteria, hostile organisms, and unknown chemical or radiological substances. This precludes trusting a foreign atmosphere until we are certain the atmosphere is safe.
Breathing is not the only hostile environment. Lifeless balls of gas and rocks circle the suns and moons of some planets. The size of the chosen battlefield may be a serious problem if the target is both hostile to human life and populated with the enemy.
ATMOSPHERIC CONCERNS
A hostile atmosphere will fight the space force. The impact of fighting in a 100% poisonous atmosphere complicates the fighting and necessitates a fully pressurized suit (subject to tears caused by enemy weapons). Every piece of equipment facility and HAZMAT suits will be at risk of contamination, decay, damage, sabotage, or decompression, causing catastrophic support system failure. Local weather – extreme temperature ranges, radiation levels, and winds hinder any assault force. Sleeping, eating, resting, bathroom, and soldiering in a locked pressure suit would make the crowded spaces on a submarine feel like a theme park ride.
GRAVITY
Depending upon its location in the solar system, the target planet or battlefield in question may have significantly different gravity levels than our terrestrial-based forces might be able to endure. Gravity is a function of the distance of a body from other bodies and also a function of its mass. Equation 12-1 gives this relationship.
F = G [ m1 x m2 / r2 ] G = 6.067 X 10-11 Eq. 12-1
Where: F is the force due to gravity, between two masses (m1 x m2 ), which are a distance r apart; G is the gravitational constant, N x m2 / kg2 ; N= Newtons. A Newton is defined as the force necessary to provide a mass of one kilogram with an acceleration of one meter per second per second.[18]
There is no conceivable limit to gravitational conditions under which a potential non-human sentient rival could evolve. (Wright, 2020)
SPACE DOMINANCE
The concept of Space Dominance (SD) has been studied by military analysts and scientists alike. Both (Szymanski, How to Fight and Win the Coming Space War, 2019) and (Wright, 2020) agree that it refers to a “preponderance of space weapons, vessels, and other space-going instruments of war which enables a localized predominance of military power.” (Szymanski, Space Operational Art, and Design (SOAD), 2020) and (Szymanski, Space Warfare Analysis Tools (SWAT) Summary, 2020) goes into serious detail for planning a campaign to create SD and presents tools to measure the logistics, objectives, timing, planning, risk assessment, and battle damage assessments for an SD campaign. [19] Space dominance goes beyond the normal terrestrial or air domain definitions. They seek to seize the initiative, maintain control, and a broad-reaching mandatory objective for space force assault. SD means maximizing both coercive power and control and the ability to deploy forces at the time and place of their choosing.(Wright, 2020)
The stronger space force in a battle, predominantly in space naval superiority and strength, is the key to space dominance. Space dominance is the first priority. Encircling enemy forces and territory should be a primary activity. It is tactically sound to totally destroy the enemy force in an “all or nothing” engagement in an extremely hostile environment. Space Dominance should be thought of as a game of GO,[20] NOT chess. In the former, the opponent aims to encircle (strangle) the opponent and deny him his strategic maneuver capability; in the latter, the opponent aims to completely deprive him of individual pieces (assets) or prevent defensive movement so that he can slaughter his ruler (king). (Wright, 2020)
SPACECRAFT CARRIER
Hollywood thinks space combat will mirror naval combat in terrestrial terms. Further, that opposing fleets will clobber each other from a distance, and at the center of their strategies are Spacecraft Carriers. The analogous Spacecraft Carrier battle group to a naval aircraft carrier group is that both require adequate defenses by concentric layers of other naval vessels to maximize the delivery punch of the Carrier. They depend upon other air or space defense vessels and escort capital ships and submarines to find, track, and destroy adversary air and underwater threats. We don’t know what the equivalent submarine would be in space. Carrier-based fighters and bombers could be leveraged to deliver large weapons payloads to enemy fleets. Because of gravity and the weightless environment, there is a special payoff in space. Strike craft are not limited by wing length, fuel considerations beyond target range, or bomb load except spaced on the craft. Newton’s Laws of Motion favor the strike craft because of limited inertial counterforce acting on the craft. (Wright, 2020)
TARGETING AND PRIORITIES
The final topic of this chapter deals with targeting. What or how do we prioritize space targets? Targets are selected first for their strategic effect/value. (USJCS, 2023) Operation Desert Storm in 1991 provides a useful case for the study of target selection. USAF Colonel Edward C. Mann III describes the options. (III, 1995)
OPTION 1 – Equal Value
The first option is to attack targets in a series with no regard for their individual value. The strategic result is a sum of the targets destroyed. The planner needs only to focus on the level of destruction required for each target, then select the best weapon and delivery system available to insure a high probability of destruction. The target order is not important. (III, 1995)[21]
OPTION 2 – Value
A second option is to assess targets based on their strategic or tactical value. Determining the strategic or tactical results when they are destroyed is possible based on a weighted scale. Targets are assigned a value based on priority, with higher-valued targets being destroyed sooner increasing the impact on the enemy for a longer period. This approach is still serial targeting if the targets are destroyed sequentially rather than simultaneously. (III, 1995)
OPTION 3 – Instant Thunder
Developed by USAF Colonel John Warden called Instant Thunder is termed exponential strategic impact targeting. (III, 1995) By attacking multiple specific targets against key enemy installations or systems simultaneously, planners seek to induce a “catastrophic failure” rather than waiting for progressive system failures under the serial targeting scheme. If successful, the effect is to induce “strategic paralysis.” (III, 1995) Instant Thunder [22] simultaneous strikes in Iraq on communications, power generation, and command and control facilities blinded Iraqi leadership to the battlefield realities and temporarily paralyzed Iraqi decision-making. Further strikes induced panic, fear, and hopelessness in Iraqi leadership and fielded forces. (III, 1995)
OPTION 3 could be used effectively in interstellar and interplanetary deep space warfare to destroy all targets strategically important and cause strategic paralysis of the enemy.
CONCLUSIONS
While we do not know yet how the U.S. approach to space and space warfare will take over the next two-five decades, we do know one thing to be true: space combat is coming, as is space mining, exploration, lunar and interplanetary settlements, and possibly First Contact. Only two nations appear capable of reaching this goal; The United States and the People’s Republic of China. These countries have different governments, policies, economics, innovation capabilities, and values. Their approaches to Space Dominance are NOT collaborative. Our first space warfare may be with existing terrestrial competitors.
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ENDNOTES
[1] To add insult to injury, The Chinese only public statement was that they wanted their balloon back.
[2] AIM-9x missiles cost $400,000 and are super accurate.
[3] It is unscientific and unsound to strategically assume we are the only sentient species in the universe. Rather than not plan, it is at least prudent to consider the real biological possibilities of encountering another space-traveling species.
[4] A “state” can mean a country, a government, or a political authority. It means absolute control over a fixed territory on Earth.
[5] Except maybe Drake’s 340.
[6] MOB = Man Overboard – a very serious situation for a Captain,
[7] For MOB, the boat leaves (especially a capital ship). For the deserter, he is trying to escape security forces which might put a few holes in his buoyancy ability. A far worse situation would be a child whose survival would be imperiled from the minute he/she entered the water.
[8] How many MOB cases have exposure suits before they go over the railing?
[9] POV = Point of View
[10] Ye author is a licensed Captain of a moderate power cruiser 38′. Many issues (supply, water, mechanical, repairs, safety of passengers, navigation accuracy, communications, food, training, EPIRB, lights, refrigeration, logging, sonar, radar, waste removal, entertainment, and security) are all the responsibility of the Captain. We cruise a known body of water, the Chesapeake. The depths are known, and the entire Bay has been mapped: NOAA Map 12270, Chesapeake Bay Eastern Bay, and South River. Ye author has also captained a sailboat. So, the environment is controlled, and crew capabilities are known on defined voyages. This is tiny responsibility compared to a Captain of a spaceborne capital vessel.
[11] Dr. Szymanski’s linked profile is: www.linkedin.com/in/PaulSzymanski
[12] The author would love to take a class Dr. Szymanski and Major Wright taught. What a pair of brilliant visionaries they are.
[13] Dr. Szymanski was part of the decision team under USJCS to establish the US Space Command.
[14] The International Space Station is 254 miles above Earth. The Geostationary orbits (GEO) are used for TV and communication satellites and cover most of the Earth at 22,223 miles. It is assumed that the edge of Szymanski’s vision stops (for purposes of Table 12-2) at the edge of the GEO range and covers everything to the Earth’s surface.
[15] Venus is 38 million miles from its closest neighbor Earth. Jupiter is 778,600,000 miles from Earth. Neptune is 2 Billion miles from Earth. Our Sun is 93 million miles from Earth. Astronomers have found a gas giant planet OGLE-2014-BLG-0124L at 13,000 light-years from Earth. 1 light-year = 5.879 x 1012 miles!
[16] TT & C = Tracking, Telemetry, and Control.
[17] This was the famed tactic of CSA Gen Andrew “Stonewall” Jackson. On May 5, 1863, his most famous maneuvering was to defeat Northern General Hooker’s Army by a long flanking march to surprise and defeat Hooker’s right during the Chancellorsville Campaign. Unfortunately, Jackson’s units became jumbled because of the Wilderness underbrush and terrain. Jackson was shot by friendly fire and died from complications of amputation and pneumonia on May 10. He was known as a superb commander for execution with elements of speed, maneuver, initiative, audacity, and singleness of purpose and determination.
[18] A simple way to think of Newton is the force of Earth’s gravity on an apple with a mass of about 102.0 grams. 5 apples = 5 Newtons. It gets more complicated when we leave Earth’s gravitational pull because we deal with vectors ( accelerating masses each in a specific direction).
[19] Dr. Szymanski’s space warfare work and experience are extensive, much CLASSIFIED, and brilliant efforts for the OPEN-Source materials delivered. He teaches courses and consults for the DoD and USJCS. His profile is on Linkedin. Most of his work is beyond the scope of this introductory chapter.
[20] AKA wei qi or baduk in Chinese and Korean, respectively.
[21] This is known as serial targeting or one-by-one destroying targets.
[22] Also called “shock and awe.”
